The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to open on a tepid note Friday amid mixed global market cues and ahead of the RBI policy today.
The trends on Gift Nifty also indicate a tepid start for the Indian benchmark index. The Gift Nifty was trading around 24,841 level, a discount of nearly 20 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra will announce the monetary policy decision today. The RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is likely to deliver a 25 basis points (bps) repo rate cut to 5.75% from 6%.
On Thursday, the domestic equity market indices ended over half a percent higher each, with the benchmark Nifty 50 closing above 24,700 level.
The Sensex gained 443.79 points, or 0.55%, to close at 81,442.04, while the Nifty 50 settled 130.70 points, or 0.53%, higher at 24,750.90.
Here’s what to expect from Sensex, Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty ahead of RBI monetary policy today:
Sensex Prediction
Sensex formed a reversal formation on daily charts and is currently trading near the 20-day SMA (Simple Moving Average).
“We believe that 81,000 would act as a key support zone for traders. As long as Sensex is trading above this level, the bullish sentiment is likely to continue. On the higher side, the index could move up to 82,000 – 82,200. However, a breakdown below 81,000 could change the sentiment. Below this level, Sensex could retest the levels of 80,700 – 80,500,” said Shrikant Chouhan, Head – Equity Research, Kotak Securities.
Nifty OI Data
Nifty Open Interest (OI) data shows the highest concentration on the call side at the 24,800 and 25,000 strike prices, indicating strong resistance at these levels. On the put side, significant OI build-up is observed at the 24,700 and 24,500 strike prices, marking these as key support zones, said Hardik Matalia, Derivative Analyst at Choice Broking.
Nifty 50 Prediction
Nifty 50 ended the session at 24,750.90, advancing 0.53%, after staging a sharp intraday recovery from lower levels. Although the index encountered profit-booking near the higher band of the recent range, it managed to hold firm and closed the day with respectable gains.
“Nifty 50 formed a small-bodied candle with equal-length wicks on both ends, highlighting the tug of war between bulls and bears. Nifty 50 holds above its 9-day and 20-day exponential moving averages (EMA), indicating that the short-term setup remains positive. Broadly, the index remains in a narrow consolidation phase. A sustained move above the 24,900 mark could act as a trigger for renewed upward momentum,” said Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities.
According to him, on the downside, immediate support is placed at 24,600, followed by a more critical cushion near 24,550. Until a breakout materializes, the index is likely to oscillate within this defined range, with a mild bullish tilt.
Dr. Praveen Dwarakanath, Vice President of Hedged.in said that the Nifty 50 formed a doji candle well within its range of 24,500 and 25,100 levels.
“The index bounced from the 24,500 level, indicating strong support at this level. The higher time frame momentum indicators are also decayed down and do not show clear signs of a rally. The open interest data for next week’s expiry also shows a sideways move; however, the index may pick the direction based on today’s RBI policy meeting,” said Dwarakanath.
According to VLA Ambala, Co-Founder of Stock Market Today, Nifty 50 formed a High Wave Doji candlestick pattern on the daily timeframe, reflecting a sense of indecision in the broader market.
“The index’s 20-day MA emerged as a crucial support level while it traded within the 24,300 to 25,000 range. Amid these, the RBI’s policy announcement could act as a major trigger, as the anticipated rate cut is expected to increase liquidity in the market. Nifty 50 could trade within a wide range in today’s session. Additionally, we can expect Nifty 50 to find support between 24,540 and 24,430 and experience resistance near 24,920, 25,000, and 25,150,” Ambala said.
Bank Nifty Prediction
Bank Nifty ended 84 points, or 0.15%, higher at 55,760.85 on Thursday, continuing to trade within a narrow range that has held for the past several weeks.
“Bank Nifty index formed a second doji candle with small shadows on either side highlighting consolidation ahead of the RBI monetary policy outcome today. The Bank Nifty index is currently placed at the upper band of the last 6 weeks consolidation range 56,000 – 53,500. We believe a closing above the 56,000 area will signal extension of the up move towards the 56,700 zone in the near term. Failure to do so will signal extension of the last five weeks’ consolidation,” said Bajaj Broking Research.
The short-term structure remains constructive with immediate support is placed at 55,000 – 55,200 levels, while key short-term support is seen at 54,000 – 53,500, which coincides with the 50-day EMA, key Fibonacci retracement levels, and the lower end of the established five-week consolidation band, it added.
Om Mehra believes that while price action remains muted, the broader trend still favours the bulls, supported by a sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
“Bank Nifty index is trading above all major moving averages, and the ascending triangle visible on the daily chart suggests the potential for an upward push. A close above 56,162 could open room for a fresh leg of gains. As long as the Nifty Bank holds 55,300, the overall trend remains positive,” Mehra said.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
