Gold Prices Up 25% YTD: Headed Toward ₹1 Lakh or Due for a Sharp Correction?

Gold Price Today: Due to economic uncertainty and tariffs, gold prices continue to rise. Today, gold prices have increased by 25% year-over-year and over 110% in the past five years. It is believed that in just a few days, the price of gold could reach ₹1 lakh.

📊 Gold Price Growth on MCX (2020–2025)

Today, there has been a sharp jump in gold prices, and it seems that within a few days, the price of gold may cross ₹1 lakh. The reasons behind this are renewed fears of a recession in the U.S. and uncertainty surrounding Trump-era tariffs. When comparing the year-to-date (YTD) period, the data is surprising — gold prices on MCX have increased by nearly 25%, rising from ₹44,906 per 10 grams to ₹95,239 between April 17, 2020, and April 17, 2025 — reflecting a massive increase of over 110% in just five years.

The sharp rise in gold prices has given multi-fold returns to those investors who invested wisely in gold. However, when assets show significant short-term gains, the risk of profit-booking also increases. Now, investors are closely watching the bullion market, wondering whether a round of selling will begin as the stock market gains momentum again — or whether both asset classes will continue to move forward together.

Why Are Gold Prices Surging Today?

What are the key factors behind the sharp surge in gold prices, and what’s driving this rapid upward momentum? According to Anuj Gupta, Head of Commodity and Currency at HDFC Securities, ongoing trade tensions and increasing economic uncertainty — especially those arising from Trump-era tariff policies — are playing a significant role in the rise of gold prices.

He states that the escalating tariffs have triggered fears of a U.S. economic slowdown. Experts, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell, have warned that even a 1% tariff hike could reduce U.S. GDP growth by about 0.10%. These recession concerns have pushed investors toward safe-haven assets, leading to a rise in gold prices. As a result, gold has gained nearly 25% so far this year and has more than doubled over the past five years — a clear sign of its growing appeal as a secure investment option.

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Could Gold Prices Reach ₹1 Lakh in the Short Term?

When Navneet Damani, Senior Vice President and Head of Commodity & Currency Research at Motilal Oswal, was asked whether gold prices could reach ₹1 lakh in the near future, he shared an optimistic outlook. He said, “The outlook for gold remains positive. Ongoing trade tensions, inflationary pressures, and continued central bank purchases will support prices.” According to Damani, technical levels suggest strong support around ₹91,000 and resistance near ₹99,000 on MCX, while on COMEX, the key levels to watch are $3100 and $3400.

Damani advised investors to adopt a ‘buy on dips’ strategy, stating, “As the global economy navigates through policy uncertainty and slowing growth, gold will likely remain an attractive investment. In a world marked by inflation, policy shifts, and geopolitical instability, gold continues to be a reliable store of value. With central banks increasing their gold reserves and investors seeking safety, gold will remain a favored asset. Unless there is a major resolution in global trade tensions, we maintain our ‘buy on dips’ stance for the medium to long term.”

Gold Price Outlook

According to Goldman Sachs’ projections, if gold reaches the year-end target of $3,700 per ounce, MCX gold prices may climb to around ₹1 lakh per 10 grams. In the event of further escalation in the US-China trade conflict, and if prices surge to $4,500 per ounce, domestic gold rates could potentially hit ₹1.25 lakh per 10 grams.

That said, it’s wise to focus on short-term targets for now. Given current market dynamics, gold is expected to trade between ₹91,000 and ₹97,000 per 10 grams. The bullish trend is likely to persist unless there’s a significant breakthrough in the ongoing US-China trade negotiations.

Gold Price Projections Table

Disclaimer: The opinions and suggestions mentioned in this article are solely those of the respective analysts and do not reflect the stance of Taaza Khabar 247. Readers are strongly encouraged to consult with certified financial advisors before making any investment choices.