OPEC agreed to surge oil output by 411,000 barrels a day for the third month in a row, doubling down on a historic policy shift that has sent crude prices sinking.
Key nations led by Saudi Arabia agreed during a video-conference on Saturday to add that amount to the market in July, according to delegates. The hike follows equally sized increases scheduled for May and June, which broke with years of efforts by the group to support global oil prices and dragged crude to a four-year low.
During Saturday’s discussions, Russia recommended a pause in the supply increases, delegates said, asking not to be named because the information was private.
Oil briefly crashed below $60 a barrel in April after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies first announced that they would bolster output by triple the scheduled amount, even as faltering demand and President Donald Trump’s trade war were already crushing the market. Futures have since recovered to near $64 in London.
Delegates have offered a range of explanations for the pivot by Riyadh, which had spent years defending high oil prices by restraining supplies.
Officials have suggested the kingdom is trying to appease President Trump, or to reclaim the market share relinquished to US shale drillers and other rivals. Some assert that OPEC is simply satisfying robust demand, while others say Saudi Arabia
Most analysts have revised down their oil price forecasts for the third consecutive month as swelling OPEC+ supply and lingering uncertainty around the impact of trade disputes on fuel demand weigh on prices, a Reuters poll showed.
According to Reuters, a survey of 40 economists and analysts in May forecasts Brent crude will average $66.98 per barrel in 2025, down from April’s $68.98 forecast, while U.S. crude is seen at $63.35, below last month’s $65.08 estimate. Prices have averaged roughly $71.08 and $67.56 so far this year respectively, as per LSEG data.
