A new opinion poll published on 9 October 2026 suggests that Spain’s centre-right People’s Party (PP) and right-wing Vox could together win a parliamentary majority in the snap general election scheduled for 29 November. The survey offers a first measurable snapshot following the election announcement, but it is not a result, and voters have not yet cast ballots.
Key points
- Spain’s October 9 40dB poll projects 198 parliamentary seats for the People’s Party and Vox combined.
- The survey estimates PP at 31.9% of the vote and the governing Socialists at 28.1%, with Vox polling at 18.9%.
- The poll sampled 800 eligible adult residents with a stated margin of error of about 3.5 percentage points, so outcomes remain uncertain.
What the polling shows
The 40dB survey commissioned by El País and Cadena SER was conducted online between 7 and 8 October, interviewing 800 adults eligible to vote. Its projected parliamentary breakdown includes 132 seats for PP and 66 for Vox, a combined 198 in the 350-seat Congress of Deputies. A majority requires 176 seats.
The survey puts the governing Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE) on 28.1% compared with 31.9% for PP and 18.9% for Vox. The 198-seat figure is a central estimate drawn from seat ranges, rather than a certified total. Sampling error, changing turnout and the translation of votes into constituencies and seats remain important uncertainties.
How Spain reached an early election
Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez called the snap poll after lawmakers rejected measures designed to address Spain’s housing crisis. Rising rents, housing access and competing proposals for relief are central issues as parties begin campaigning. The latest surveys are a substantive development since the election was announced earlier in the week; they should not be treated as a new election date or a completed vote.
If the poll were reflected in the election, PP and Vox could have a path to forming a government. But there remain weeks of campaigning, voters are free to change their minds, and coalition negotiations cannot be presumed before results are certified.
Why it matters
Spain is a major European Union economy. The composition of its next government would influence policy debates on housing, immigration and relations with other EU institutions. For readers following Europe, the most important number is not a party’s single poll share but whether surveys consistently point toward or away from a workable parliamentary majority.
For background, see our earlier report on the election announcement and the International section. Which housing proposal would you expect the parties to explain most clearly before voting?
Sources
El País original 40dB survey and methodology, 9 October 2026; Reuters independent report, 9 October 2026; Demócrata polling analysis, 9 October 2026.
Archival photograph: Spanish Parliament in Madrid, captured 26 July 2023; not a photograph of the October 2026 poll or campaign. Photo by JuanSanchezGil for The European Times, via Wikimedia Commons, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0. Resized for display; any crop or adaptation of this image remains under the same licence.
Published 10 October 2026. AI-assisted drafting and numerical checks against survey methodology and independent dated reporting. Polling figures are estimates, not predictions of a certain result.
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